Senegal’s domestic fuel reserves shall be primarily used to supply electricity. Authorities anticipate that domestic gas infrastructure tasks will come online between 2025 and 2026, offered there isn’t a delay. The monetization of these important energy assets is at the basis of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the worldwide know-how group Wärtsilä conducted in-depth studies that analyse the economic influence of the various gas-to-power strategies out there to Senegal. Two very completely different technologies are competing to satisfy the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These studies have revealed very vital system cost variations between the two major gas-to-power applied sciences the nation is at present considering. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gas engines are in reality a lot better suited than mixed cycle gasoline generators to harness power from Senegal’s new gasoline resources cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total price differences between the 2 applied sciences may attain as much as 480 million USD till 2035 relying on eventualities.
Two competing and really completely different technologies
The state-of-the-art vitality combine models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised power scenarios to determine the price optimal method to deliver new era capability for a particular nation, shows that ICE and CCGT applied sciences current significant value differences for the gas-to-power newbuild program working to 2035.
Although ราคาเพรสเชอร์เกจ are equally confirmed and reliable, they’re very different when it comes to the profiles in which they’ll function. CCGT is a expertise that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, where it could operate at 90% load issue at all times. On the other hand, versatile ICE know-how can function efficiently in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to some other technology applied sciences that will make up the country’s energy mix.
In particular our research reveals that when working in an electrical energy network of restricted size corresponding to Senegal’s 1GW nationwide grid, relying on CCGTs to considerably increase the network capability could be extremely expensive in all possible scenarios.
Cost variations between the technologies are explained by a number of elements. First of all, sizzling climates negatively impact the output of fuel turbines greater than it does that of gas engines.
Secondly, because of Senegal’s anticipated entry to low-cost home gas, the working prices turn out to be less impactful than the investment costs. In other phrases, as a end result of low fuel costs lower working costs, it is financially sound for the nation to rely on ICE energy crops, that are inexpensive to construct.
Technology modularity additionally plays a key position. Senegal is predicted to require an additional 60-80 MW of generation capability each year to have the ability to meet the increasing demand. This is far lower than the capability of typical CCGTs vegetation which averages 300-400 MW that have to be in-built one go, leading to pointless expenditure. Engine energy crops, on the opposite hand, are modular, which suggests they are often constructed precisely as and when the country needs them, and additional extended when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The mannequin exhibits that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops at the expense of ICE-gas, it’s going to result in as a lot as 240 million dollars of additional cost for the system by 2035. The cost difference between the applied sciences can even enhance to 350 million USD in favor of ICE technology if Senegal also chooses to construct new renewable power capacity within the next decade.
Risk-managing potential gasoline infrastructure delays
The development of gasoline infrastructure is a complex and prolonged endeavour. Program delays are not uncommon, inflicting gasoline supply disruptions that can have a huge monetary impact on the operation of CCGT plants.
Nigeria knows something about that. Only last year, important gasoline provide points have triggered shutdowns at a few of the country’s largest gasoline turbine energy vegetation. Because Gas generators function on a steady combustion course of, they require a constant supply of fuel and a secure dispatched load to generate constant power output. If the provision is disrupted, shutdowns occur, putting an excellent strain on the overall system. ICE-Gas crops on the opposite hand, are designed to regulate their operational profile over time and improve system flexibility. Because of their versatile operating profile, they were capable of keep a much greater level of availability
The research took a deep dive to analyse the financial influence of two years delay within the fuel infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to take a position into gasoline engines, the value of gas delay can be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would lead to a staggering 770 million dollars in additional price.
Whichever method you take a look at it, new ICE-Gas technology capability will minimize the whole value of electricity in Senegal in all possible eventualities. If Senegal is to satisfy electricity demand growth in a cost-optimal means, at least 300 MW of recent ICE-Gas capacity might be required by 2026.
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